Betting Conference Play

Initially I thought of writing this after my lousy day on Saturday when I went (5-7) in College Hoops .Normally this time of year although they do have their place I am not a big proponent of betting Dogs in College Hoops especially when the schedule switches to league play .The reason is pretty simple and if you go back and check the past results you'll find it plays out .Early in the season you see obvious mismatches in the schedule where National Powerhouses are playing teams that simply can't match up Athletically.Whether that disparity comes from a lack of size , speed , or sheer Athletic ability they simply can't go a full 40 minutes head to head with the Beasts of College Ball .During this early season stretch its not a bad time to play Dogs on the first half line where you'll find some value with a David going against a Goliath give it there all in the fist 20 minutes only to have that effort squashed in the second half where the Faves taken , size , and speed simply takes over .
This time of year when the schedule shifts to Conference Play you have teams that are very familiar with the Offenses run , and are on a much more even playing field with their opponent .Not only that , but you'll have coaches as well that have either been an assistant Coach or maybe even a player at one time for a team in their Conference and know certain teams style of play like the back of their hand .This will tend to  at times offer up more value on the Dog side , as the public loves the Faves really no matter what the situation because their mindset will always be to have something to root for and that is usually scoring .So when they think they perceive value on a fave , especially on a high profile Fave ....you can bet that the Book will add a few extra points onto the number knowing the difference between a -10 or -11 to the masses is really meaningless when in fact from my point of view a Fave that may open -9.5 and moves to say -11 or higher is dead to me and it becomes a Dog or nothing assuming its a side that I was previously looking at.You'll see more of what I like to call the mid range faves of 5 to 7 points will cash at a higher % than the higher priced 10 -13 point faves.Now I'm saying this is written in stone but it is something you might want to take a look at when making your betting decisions where conference play is concerned.