Betting MLB Middles for 2013

There are a few ways to bet an mlb Middle .I have listed the two most common below.The second
Is probably more familiar to most than the first ,but both can be a very effective part of you
MLB betting arsenal for the upcoming season.The initial Middle which I'll give an example of on
Todays card.Lets say the Yanks were + money on the Run Line ,which currently they are not.
If they were it would look like this ....Yanks -1.5 +115 .No with the Yanks being such heavy faves right around -175 as of this writing I would bet the on the R/L and take the Dog (Astros) at the Pre season 15 cent line of +160.Only one way to lose this bet and that would be if the game had the Yanks win by 1 run.Other than that you have a built in guaranteed profit

The above example of a typical R/L -M/L middle as opposed to what I like to call a generic 

Middle .In other words a Fave opens -180 and considering eveyone will be using a Dime Line

.We would grab the Dog +170 early and look for the fave to dip to the -160 /-165 Range

effecting a no lose situation .If the Fave wins assuming a 1 Unit bet the profit would obviously 

be one Unit allowing the bettor to push on this middle as the Dog losing would cost -1 Unit.If the Fave should lose the player would lose -160 ,but profit the +170 on the Dog

making the midle a profitable wager .Of course the only bet you're really making here

is that the line moves in the desired direction which unfortunately isn't going to be the case

every time.When this happens you're stuck a bit and need to minimize the damage by getting down on the

Fave in as favorable position as possible and minimizing your losses on that Middle .

All in all you're likely to hit more than you miss ,and it will certainly add up over the course of the Season fattening you Bankroll substantially .

Best of luck this Season

Tony C

Betting Conference Play

Initially I thought of writing this after my lousy day on Saturday when I went (5-7) in College Hoops .Normally this time of year although they do have their place I am not a big proponent of betting Dogs in College Hoops especially when the schedule switches to league play .The reason is pretty simple and if you go back and check the past results you'll find it plays out .Early in the season you see obvious mismatches in the schedule where National Powerhouses are playing teams that simply can't match up Athletically.Whether that disparity comes from a lack of size , speed , or sheer Athletic ability they simply can't go a full 40 minutes head to head with the Beasts of College Ball .During this early season stretch its not a bad time to play Dogs on the first half line where you'll find some value with a David going against a Goliath give it there all in the fist 20 minutes only to have that effort squashed in the second half where the Faves taken , size , and speed simply takes over .
This time of year when the schedule shifts to Conference Play you have teams that are very familiar with the Offenses run , and are on a much more even playing field with their opponent .Not only that , but you'll have coaches as well that have either been an assistant Coach or maybe even a player at one time for a team in their Conference and know certain teams style of play like the back of their hand .This will tend to  at times offer up more value on the Dog side , as the public loves the Faves really no matter what the situation because their mindset will always be to have something to root for and that is usually scoring .So when they think they perceive value on a fave , especially on a high profile Fave ....you can bet that the Book will add a few extra points onto the number knowing the difference between a -10 or -11 to the masses is really meaningless when in fact from my point of view a Fave that may open -9.5 and moves to say -11 or higher is dead to me and it becomes a Dog or nothing assuming its a side that I was previously looking at.You'll see more of what I like to call the mid range faves of 5 to 7 points will cash at a higher % than the higher priced 10 -13 point faves.Now I'm saying this is written in stone but it is something you might want to take a look at when making your betting decisions where conference play is concerned.

Betting the NHL

Finally my wish has been granted and the NHL season is just a few crossing of T's and dotting on I's away .Today I want to talk about the edge that it gives Sports Bettors .Up until a few years ago the NHL was an all but forgotten sport by Bookmakers in general , but that has all changed beginning a few years back when the books started getting abused by those who found value in betting Dog's and Totals in the NHL.

Today I want to talk about betting totals and the value that it provides us as Sports Bettors .And to keep it as simple as possible the value comes from the short spreads that the Books pretty much universally adhere to .When I refer to a Books spread in this case I am refferring to the difference between the Over and the Under price .This is where things get very interesting .Especially in the early season it will be extremely rare if ever to see as Total higher than 6.5 or lower than 5, and when you look at it this way you realize that you are dealing with a very slim margin indeed.The reason for the small spread is very simple , as it prevents Books from getting sided on Totals where they become more of a bettor , as opposed to a Bookmaker .When I say sided that simply means for the Books to be so heavy either on the Over or Under where it would greatly effect their take for the day either based on one or more Totals.And you can bet moving the Total on any NHL to 7 would immediately cause an influx of Sharp money to come in on the Under , much the same way dropping a Total to 4.5 would have the same effect with Over money coming in.

For those that have bet Hockey for any length of time you're well aware of teams that go on scoring streaks , as well as scoring slumps .Very much the same in that regard as Major League Baseball .These are one of the things I like to look for when betting Totals in the NHL , and as most of you that know me know that I am more of an Under Totals bettor so you know what kind of streak that I'll be looking for .This season will be a wait and see for me for several days at least because due to the shortened season  every game will take on an added importance , and prior conditioning as far as during the strike or lack thereof will become immediately evident .

I believe there will also be a great deal more value on Underdogs early on in this shortened season as well with the pre-determined faves getting far overvalued in relation to actual market conditions .These are the times to take full advantage of public perception especially in regard to Dogs of the +140 or above variety  .With teams like the Rangers and Penguins getting plenty of Pre Season ink the public with naturally follow irregardless of the price , and that's when we strike and take full advantage of that over valuation .Just my early take and a few tips that I feel will help you pad your Bankroll

Best of Luck

Tony C


perception especially whe

Bloodbath for the Books

Aha so finally after 6 weeks of frustration , and paying their man week after week the Public finally broke through .This week will go down as the worst week certainly of this season and one of the worst in recent memories for many Bookmakers .Saturday started the Public Party off with all the Big Square Faves getting the money .With  USC, Oregon , LSU ,Oak. , and Wisky all cashing the Bookie Beat Down was in full swing .What made all this much worse for the Books that many of these were hooked up in Parlays , and Teasers with Sunday's Fisherman's Special consisting of the Texans ,Saints , Cowboy's a game that if landed on the 2 that it was on before the last minute FG by Dallas would have busted up a ton of Parlay's and Teasers . Oh yeah throw in the Packers early and the Steelers late and you get the idea..A few day's the Books definitely want to forget .Even with the Pat's not covering it still didn't help much with all the early Saturday and Sunday Combos , and Parlay cards with some at (40-1) Payouts and higher  .
I guess though in typical Book fashion only remembering the one bad week and forgetting the previous 5 out of 6 that the public went digging for money  . I'm really not feeling all that bad for them because as you might imaging the Public will be back on those very same Faves this week again irregardless of the number or opposition .And once again when things finally turn as they always will ,  back around to the books favor it will be the Public complaining that if this call wasn't made and that turnover didn't happen then they would be in far better shape .And so the Sports Betting World spins , and where it will stop ..We'll we'll find that out in a few day's . So far this week with a winning Tease on MNF it's exactly as it should be .Hopefully it will continue in  our favor for the rest of this week as we go for out 4th straight winning week.

Best of Luck

Tony C

Handicapping College Football

This brief article is actually geared to capping College Football at the Mid-Way point in the season which we have just passed and a few things that I want you to look for before you jump in .Number 1 and a subject that I touched on briefly in a video earlier this week is to proceed with caution when looking at steam moves .Now knowing that probably half the moves are set ups for a take back on either Friday night or early Saturday Morning on the opposite side , here is one way to tell when a stem move is an actual position .Let's consider the fact that early in the week the public is not wagering in general anyway , but the easiest way to spot a true position is a game such as Toledo which opened Cincy -8 .What I like to call a crooked number such as 5.5  or 1.5 . This number was hit early by the Sharps hard and continuously driving the number down to it's current 5.5 where it now sits .This number unless I miss my guess is ripe for a move to +6 and then another swarm of Toledo money will come in .So basically I want you to look for moves that occur across the board at every book and which move in 1 point increments that occur early and often during the week .Now that's not to say this move is any Sharper than Kansas St but the K St move from +3 to +2.5 is significant in it's own way as books would rather not move off the +3 where no decision is required on their part.And remember public money will never move a line early in the week in any sport because it's money coming from bettors that are not respected in the gambling community.I also look to the Dog in the case of over valued faves which occur quite frequently early in the season but are far more critical at this point in the season.Why so much more critical now then lets say a Month ago.Well the reason is simple , and it's because the opponents have had that many more weeks of game play and a lot of the time have improved without getting any respect from the Books .This happens again week in and week out with the Public Favorites such as Notre Dame , USC ,LSU ,South Carolina to name a few .Another very important aspect are injuries at this time of the year especially. Lets face it every team is banged up at this point in the season and it's the teams with sufficient depth at key positions that will be able to continually compete through even the toughest of injuries , even to key players .
Ok so there you have it ..Just a few key points I want you to take a look at when you go down the list of teams you're thinking of betting this Weekend.

Best of Luck

Tony C

The Handicapping Industry as a whole

Today I wanted to talk about the Industry that I am involved in , and what you should really look for when you are trying to choose a legitimate Sports Service.Below I will list some tips , and Red Flags to watch out for.Lets start with the Most obvious to me I like to call it :

The screaming Maniac Approach
I'm not going to out anyone in particular here , because by their antics alone the y put a large distance between themselves , and legitimate Handicappers.I'm sure you've all seen them the loudmouths that figure the louder they scream and the more emphasis they put on the few winners that they generate the faster they can take cash out of your pocket .I know one guy who actually kicks back to a certain book which shall remain nameless which lets him post a fraudulent account with a supposed dollar figure which is equally as phony as the account itself .And he actually has the nerve to have people call him so they can log into his fake account Next is my favorite.

The imaginary rating system

Ok so we have GOM, GOW ,GOY , Waive the Rating , and my all time favorite
The Dime System .Scammers employ this technique because #1 it means nothing and has no real world value.Do us both a favor and the next 100 Dime Play one of these low life's have call them up and ask them what each Dime is worth and how much should you be betting with your 2,000 Bankroll on their 100 Dimer , and I really  only want to risk 50 Dimes what would that be .Let me know  how long it takes for them to start tripping over their words,and do you know why ? Because they have no idea what it means either.They are just hoping that some ..Lets call them poorly advised person actually think s they are betting $100,000 on this game so it must be strong.Trust me most of them couldn't scare up $10,000 if you gave them a Month let a lone bet $100,000 on a game.

Same deal if you hear the word Lock Just do yourself a favor and hang up the phone.Also if any so called Handicapper asks you how much you bet... Hang up the phone.This is the oldest scam in the Book .All he's trying to do is determine how much ready cash you have for him to rob.If you tell him you bet a Dime a game that $300 Package is suddenly going to be specially priced at $1000 for you .He'll tell you that you need the upgrade because the lower priced package is really designed for the recreational bettor .

Impossible Winning %

Anyone who represents a winning % over time of over 60% is quite simply scamming you .Yes it's possible over the very short term 3-4 Months Max to hit 60% or more , but over the long term referring to 8 Months or longer it's an impossibility , and after 28 years of betting Professionally you can take my word for it .

Those are the key points to the quickest scams to get money out of your pocket , but if you ever have a question on any Handicapper or something causes you to pause .Let me know and I'll give you the low down on it.

This is in no way intended to have you use my service .That decision is totally yours and I let my numbers speak for themselves .Of course I'd love to have you when you're ready to step up to that level and approach this as a business and not a recreational pastime .Those are the people I want on my team , as I take what I do very seriously and I want my clients to do the same .I wish you all the very best of luck , and I look forward to a big Weekend here.

Tony C

Bankroll Management / What Books don't want you to do .

Yesterday I covered Money Management , which is quite a bit different than the Bankroll Management that I am about to cover today .Considering that your Bankroll is the main weapon in profit making in Sports Betting you better learn how to take proper care of it , or risk going bust.As a Professional Sports Bettor I realize than losing streaks can and absolutely will occur .Apparently I am one of the few that has them in the Twitter world of make believe anyway .I readily admit when I lose as I do when I win and realize it's all part of the end game of being profitable come years end .
So lets dig into it a bit deeper as I am of quite a different opinion than most so called experts .Most of the articles you read will say never bet anymore than 3% of your total Bankroll on any one game or risk going broke .I like to stretch it a bit further but not much.I'll go as high as 5% and that's about it .So lets say you have a $3,000 Bankroll at the start of the season .At 5 % being your average bet you'll be at $150 with your average bet .Here's is where the management part comes in , and the most important part if you plan on staying alive in this business for very long.Your Bankroll needs to be adjusted daily as far as I'm concerned or at the very least weekly .I'm still of the daily school to get a true picture and to keep the tightest grip of your Bankroll possible.OK so lets say today you have 3 plays all at $150 a play or for a Total of 15% of your current $3,000 Bankroll.
The day ends and you go (2-1) good for + $135 . which now brings your current Bankroll to $3,135 . Now playing 5% of you Bankroll per Play moves your bet to $155 , and no that doesn't mean to win $155 that means that that $155 is the amount that you bet .
That becomes your new bet amount .Now lets  say the next day things don't go as planned and you make 2 Plays at 5 % = $155 , and they both go up in flames .
Your current Bankroll drops to  $2,825 and now your bet amount drops right along with it to $140 Risk.I realize this might not be the most exciting way to bet but I can tell you that it is the best way to prevent you from going broke .It's no different than Dollar Cost Averaging of a Mutual Fund , or a Stock .If you were to invest the same amount every Month in either of these the Price will dictate how many shares you will buy for that Month.The price rises your standard investment amount will buy less . The Price goes down the same vested amount will automatically buy more.
Hopefully this gives you a better idea of the correct way to manage your Bankroll ,and I know if you implement these important practice along with proper money management you will most certainly become a much more successful Sports Bettor .